Assessing trends in climate aridity and vulnerability to soil degradation in Italy

The present study illustrates a framework to analyze changes in climate aridity and soil degradation on a country scale in Italy. The spatial distribution of an indicator of soil vulnerability to degradation (the SQI, soil quality index) was compared with an aridity index (the ratio of annual rainfall to annual reference evapotranspiration) estimated on a decadal basis during 1951–2010. The aridity index decreased by 0.38% per year indicating increased aridity and a non-uniform spatial distribution of soil vulnerability to degradation. Changes in the aridity index were found associated with the lowest SQI classes, suggesting that the largest increase in climate aridity affects land with high-quality soils. Territorial disparities in the aridity index between high-quality and low-quality soils decreased over time indicating a more homogeneous and dry climate regime prevailing in the more recent decades. Results may inform sustainable land management policies and National Action Plans to combat desertification in the Mediterranean region. Areas classified at increased aridity and high vulnerability to soil degradation should be identified as a key target for climate change mitigation policies. Sustainable land management strategies are required to address the dependency between climate variations, land-use changes and soil degradation processes.     

Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using a multi-criteria outranking approach with application to heat stress in Sydney

Climate change vulnerability assessment is a complex form of risk assessment which accounts for both geophysical and socio-economic components of risk. In indicator-based vulnerability assessment (IBVA), indicators are used to rank the vulnerabilities of socio-ecological systems (SESs). The predominant aggregation approach in the literature, sometimes based on multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), typically builds a global-scale, utility function based on weighted summation, to generate rankings. However, the corresponding requirement for additive independence and complete knowledge of system interactions by analyst are rarely if ever satisfied in IBVA.We build an analogy between the structures of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and IBVA problems and show that a set of techniques called Outranking Methods, developed in MCDA to deal with criteria incommensurability, data uncertainty and preference imprecision, offer IBVA a sound alternative to additive or multiplicative aggregation. We reformulate IBVA problems within an outranking framework, define thresholds of difference and use an outranking method, ELECTRE III, to assess the relative vulnerability to heat stress of 15 local government areas in metropolitan Sydney. We find that the ranking outcomes are robust and argue that an outranking approach is better suited for assessments characterized by a mix of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative indicators, threshold effects and uncertainties about the exact relationships between indicators and vulnerability.     

退耕还林还草工程对陕北地区生态系统服务价值时空演变的影响

基于陕北地区1990、2000、2015年土地利用数据，运用单位面积生态系统价值当量因子法、格网法、探索性空间数据法（ESDA），分析了退耕还林还草工程实施前后生态系统服务价值（ESV）的空间分布和演化规律，探讨了退耕还林还草工程对ESV的影响。结果表明：（1）陕北地区退耕还林还草工程实施效果显著，工程实施后共有297066.15 hm2耕地转化为林地和草地，林草覆盖率由57.33%增长至60.50%。（2）退耕还林还草工程使得陕北地区ESV得到了显著提升。25年间陕北地区ESV共增加了32.82亿元，ESV在工程实施后比工程实施前多增加了5.93亿元，增长主要源于退耕引起林地和草地面积的增加。（3）ESV空间分布上呈显著的“南高北低”分布格局，并表现出正向的集聚性和依存性，ESV热点区和冷点区集聚效果明显，热点区集聚与林地、草地的空间分布相吻合，冷点区集聚与未利用地、耕地和建设用地的空间分布相吻合。（4）受退耕还林还草工程影响，陕北地区中部中等等级和次高ESV分布区域逐渐增大、次热点区空间集聚性逐渐增强，北部次低等级和低等级ESV分布区域逐渐减少、冷点区空间集聚性逐渐减弱。整体而言，陕北地区土地利用类型转移和ESV的增减变化与推行退耕还林还草工程在时间上相呼应、在空间上相匹配，退耕还林还草工程实施使得陕北地区生态环境得到了有效改善，ESV得到了显著提升。     

A simple,band‐mounted device to measure behaviorally modified thermal microclimates experienced by birds

Birds encounter climate at the scale of microclimates that can vary rapidly in time and space and so understanding potential vulnerability and adaptations to those microclimates requires fine‐scale measurements that accurately track thermal exposures. However, few options exist for recording the microclimates actually experienced by birds (realized microclimates). We constructed and tested a simple, low‐cost, temperature logger for recording the realized microclimates of ground‐nesting birds. We developed attachment protocols for band‐mounting Thermochron iButtons on Ring‐billed Gull (Larus delawarensis) chicks. We tested these mounted, temperature‐logging devices on 20 chicks weighing > 200 g (device weight was 4 g), attaching devices for 48 h and observing behavior before and after attachment and removal. Devices recorded temperature immediately surrounding the leg at 2‐min intervals. Recorded temperatures were strong predictors of observed thermoregulatory behaviors (panting and sitting), outperforming predictions based on air temperatures measured by basic, static approaches. Through comparison with matched controls (chicks with just a band), we detected no adverse physiological effects of devices, no effects on social or feeding behavior, and only a short‐term decrease in inactivity immediately after device attachment (likely due to increased preening). By attaching iButtons to the legs of birds, we quantified realized thermal exposure, integrating air temperature, modes of environmental heat transfer, and bird behavior at microclimatic scales. Although not yet validated for broader use, our approach (including possible miniaturization) should be suitable to measure thermal exposure of adults, not just chicks, allowing collection of data concerning thermal exposures during flight under field conditions. At ~ $25 USD per device, our approach facilitates experimental protocols with robust sample sizes, even for relatively modest budgets.     

Island urbanization and its ecological consequences: A case study in the Zhoushan Island,East China

Islands, which provide multiple ecosystem services, are subject to increasing urbanization pressure due to the ongoing marine development, especially in developing countries. Insights into the island urbanization mechanism and its ecological consequences are essential to sustainable development. In the present paper, the satellite images, nighttime lights, and topographic data were integrated to characterize the spatially explicit urbanization process and mechanism during 1995–2011 in the Zhoushan Island, East China. Furthermore, the corresponding spatially explicit changes in ecosystem services, including net primary productivity (NPP), carbon sequestration and oxygen production (CSOP), nutrient cycling, crop production, and habitat quality, were quantified based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models. The results showed that the Zhoushan Island had experienced a rapid urbanization over the years, with significant urban encroachment on the farmland and tidal flat. Moreover, the urban land expansion was positively correlated with that of the nighttime lights and negatively correlated with the elevation, slope, and the distance to shoreline. These indicated that the urban expansion was resulted from the enhancement of socioeconomic activities, and concentrated in the near-shore areas with low altitude and gentle slope. The urban encroachment on other land use types resulted in a decrease of 3.4 Gg C a⁻¹ NPP, 8.7 Gg a⁻¹ CSOP, 13.2 Gg a⁻¹ nutrient cycling, and 12.3 t a⁻¹ crop production, respectively. In addition, the habitat quality in 11% area of this island degraded substantially. Therefore, to achieve sustainable development of islands, it is urgent to implement more stringent policies, such as island spatial regulation, environmental impact assessment, intensive land use, and urban greening, etc.     

A novel approach for the identification of pointer years

In the context of extreme event ecology, identification of pointer years has become a central aspect of tree-ring research. However, the variety of methods employed for pointer year detection since the introduction of the concept in 1979 impedes a direct comparison among studies. Moreover, most commonly used methods partly rely on arbitrarily selected thresholds, resulting in a potentially inconsistent application of those means. To overcome these discrepancies, we here introduce the “standardized growth change” method SGC, which relies on probability density functions of standardized year-to-year ring width differences and internationally accepted significance levels. To evaluate the performance of SGC, it is applied to 1000 pseudo-populations with known properties as well as to an existing Scots pine tree ring data set and compare the results derived from SGC to the four most frequently applied pointer year detection methods. Our comparative evaluation indicates SGC to supersede the other considered methods. In particular, it identified all artificially introduced pointer years in the pseudo-populations, whereas the other methods missed between 3 and 96 percent of known events. A detailed evaluation of misclassifications by the other approaches points out method-specific weaknesses. Finally, we provide technical aspects and recommendations for the application of SGC in a broader context.     

Community persistence in Broadstone Stream (U.K.) over three decades

1. Few detailed long-term data sets exist for fresh waters with which to examine large-scale temporal changes in community composition. Consequently, insight into community persistence has been restricted to a few, contingent case studies. We collated and analysed data for the aquatic macroinvertebrate community of Broadstone Stream in south-east England, spanning three decades. The pH of this naturally acid stream has risen progressively since the 1970s, and we sought to examine the potential effects of this environmental change upon the community.
2. Persistence within Broadstone was high when compared with other systems that have been analysed using similar methods. The stream was characterised by a `core' community of eight taxa that were always present, and contributed 75–97% of total invertebrate abundance, with a trailing limb of progressively rarer and more acid-sensitive taxa. There was little species turnover, although the time-series exceeded 20 generations for most species.
3. Despite this high persistence, a long-term response to rising pH was detected: species indicating profound acidity (identified a priori from independent studies) have declined since the 1970s, whereas indicators of moderate acidity increased. The structure of the community food web has also changed since the 1970s, with increased predator diversity and abundance, and a lengthening of food chains following the invasion of a new top predator.
4. These changes in the community appeared to be driven by an interaction between pH and climate. The unusually hot, dry summers characteristic of the 1990s may have raised pH during the more sensitive (i.e. early) stages of the life-cycle, and thus provided a window of opportunity for less acid-tolerant taxa to colonise and become established. Changes in pH appeared to set the boundaries of the available local species pool, within which biotic interactions ultimately shaped the community.